The Variability of Estimates of Variance, and Its Effect on Power Analysis in Monitoring Design

Power analysis can be a valuable aid in the design of monitoringprograms. It requires an estimate of variance, which may come from a pilot study or an existing study in a similar habitat. For marine benthic infauna, natural variation in abundances canbe considerable, raising the question of reliability of varianceestimates. We used two existing monitoring programs to generatemultiple estimates of variance. These estimates were found to differ from nominated best estimates by 50% or more in 43% of cases, in turn leading to under or over-estimation of samplesize in the design of a notional monitoring program. The twostudies, from the same general area, using the same samplingmethods and spanning a similar time scale, gave estimatesvarying by more than an order of magnitude for 25% of taxa.We suggest that pilot studies for ecological monitoring programsof marine infauna should include at least two sampling times.     

Biological complexity confounds the separation of point- and non-point sources of human impact on the natural world

Identifying process from pattern is one of the most vexing tasks inenvironmental monitoring. Given information on the distribution of speciesin a pre-defined area, together with comprehensive data on how environmentalconditions in that area have altered through time, is it possible toidentify the factors controlling the species‘ layout? Here, the practicalsignificance of this quandary is demonstrated using a series ofenvironmentally-degraded coastal lagoons in New South Wales. The TuggerahLakes (33°17′S,151°30′E) have over the last 50 yearsexperienced significant changes in species‘ distributions. Seagrasses,macroalgae, phytoplankton, molluscs, prawns and the jellyfish Catostylus mosaicus have altered in spatial pattern. Two human activitieshave been blamed for these perturbations: (1) agricultural clearance ofnative vegetation from the catchment, with associated input of top-soil andnutrients; (2) the commissioning of a coal-fired power station in 1967, withmassive uptake and recirculation of lake water for cooling purposes. In thispaper, spatial changes in macrophyte distributions over the last 50 yearsare reviewed in an attempt to identify the true source(s) of perturbation.The model adopted assumes that the power station is a point source of impactwhile nutrient inputs from the catchment are a diffuse source of impact;changes in species distributions can hypothetically be related back to thesesources according to whether they are localised or widespread. However,after a comprehensive analysis of available macrophyte data derived frominterviews, aerial photography and line transect methodologyies theconclusion is reached that changes in biogeographical pattern around theTuggerah Lakes cannot be attributed to specific anthropogenic pressures atanything beyond the coarsest of levels. This is considered to be the normfor most coastal management situations where natural background variation(’noise‘) and the complexity of linkages between physical, chemical andbiological components confounds the identification of causal relationships.The practical implications of this conclusion are discussed in the contextof litigation and remedial management design. Emphasis is placed on theneed to adopt an adaptive approach to estuarine management, incorporatingexplicit recognition of the limitations of available data, and to developnew techniques for identifying cause-effect relationships.     

中国能源的现状

研究中国能源的现状，其中主要包括能源储量和能源生产以煤为主；石油和天然气在能源构成中的比例低下；煤炭储量可观，但品质不高；能源生产增长迅速；能源短缺。尤其是清洁能源短缺，清洁能源危机将会长期存在。我国如此的能源现状已造成大气环境煤烟型严重污染。我国从石油输出国已变成石油进口国，我国半个多世纪以来实施的“能源自给政策”急需调整。采用洁净煤技术开发利用清洁能源，确保经济在持续迅速发展的同时，我国大气环境免遭污染，即经济发展和大气环境保护双赢。     

制药GMP技改工程水环境影响分析和对策

对湖北施恩堂制药一期GMP技术改造工程产生的水环境影响进行了分析,采用以UASB+SBR为主的工艺处理技改工程和原有工程产生的制药废水,"以新带老"削减,COD、BOD5、SS分别较GMP技改前减排94.6%、94.1%和50.2%,减轻了污染负荷,可实现达标排放,达到了增产减污的目的。     

大理市生活垃圾焚烧处置初探

针对大理生活垃圾污染现状,提出采用高温焚烧方法处理大理市产生的城市生活垃圾的必要性,并用垃圾焚烧产生的热能发电.采取相应的措施防治燃烧过程中产生的污染物,可最终实现垃圾处理的减量化、无害化、资源化要求.     

重型柴油车污染物排放量计算方法比较分析

目的 计算大功率大吨位级重型柴油车的污染物排放量.方法 根据《公路隧道通风设计细则》和世界道路协会(PIARC)2012年技术报告,分别计算32 t重型柴油车的污染物排放量和稀释污染物所需的通风量,对比分析两种计算方法的差异.结果 对《公路隧道通风设计细则》中柴油车的车型系数和海拔高度系数提出建议.根据世界道路协会(PIARC)2012年技术报告,在0～2000 m低海拔地区,国产32 t柴油车的CO、NOx和烟尘排放量分别为88.6、166.0 m3/(h·veh)和84.2 m2/(h·veh),如果考虑NOx的空气污染,稀释单辆国产32 t柴油车排放污染物所需空气量约为33000 m3/h;如果不考虑NOx的空气污染,所需空气量约为28000 m3/h.结论 结合工程实际,建议大功率大吨位级重型柴油车的污染物排放量根据世界道路协会(PIARC)2012年技术报告进行计算.     

火电厂浮升烟流穿透模型分析

通过对现有浮升烟流穿透模型的分析,考虑了非均匀层结大气对烟流抬升的影响,提出了一个较为合理的穿透模型,区域性火电厂实例计算结果表明它是有效的.因此,该模型为大型火电厂环境影响评价提供了一种估算浮升烟流穿透过程的实用方法.     

一种新型滑动集电材料的研制及性能研究

利用粉末冶金 /挤压的方法制作了一种新型的Cu C滑动集电材料 ,并对该材料的机械物理、摩擦磨损性能进行了检测 ,结果证明该材料具有较高的抗拉强度、适中的表面硬度、较低的电阻率、优良的摩擦磨损性能 ,是一种较为优良的电力机车滑板材料。其性能测试结果和铁道部标准要求相比 ,优于铁道部标准要求。     

次级燃料还原燃烧产物内NOx的动力学特性研究

提出了在燃煤电站锅炉炉膛内添加次级燃料建立ＮＯｘ的还原区，以控制ＮＯｘ的排放，建立了描述ＮＯｘ还原动态过程的数学模型和化学动力学模型，对计算值和实测值作了比较分析。     

Methodological and Practical Considerations for Developing Multiproject Baselines for Electric Power and Cement Industry Projects in Central America

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the Center for Sustainable Development in the Americas (CSDA) conducted technical studies and organized two training workshops to develop capacity in Central America for the evaluation of climate change projects. This paper describes the results of two baseline case studies conducted for these workshops, one for the power sector and one for the cement industry, that were devised to illustrate certain approaches to baseline setting. Multiproject baseline emission rates (BERs) for the main Guatemalan electricity grid were calculated from 2001 data. In recent years, the Guatemalan power sector has experienced rapid growth; thus, a sufficient number of new plants have been built to estimate viable BERs. We found that BERs for baseload plants offsetting additional baseload capacity ranged from 0.702 kgCO2/kWh (using a weighted average stringency) to 0.507 kgCO2/kWh (using a 10th percentile stringency), while the baseline for plants offsetting load-following capacity is lower at 0.567 kgCO2/kWh. For power displaced from existing load-following plants, the rate is higher, 0.735 kgCO2/kWh, as a result of the age of some plants used for meeting peak loads and the infrequency of their use. The approved consolidated methodology for the Clean Development Mechanism yields a single rate of 0.753 kgCO2/kWh. Due to the relatively small number of cement plants in the region and the regional nature of the cement market, all of Central America was chosen as the geographic boundary for setting cement industry BERs. Unfortunately, actual operations and output data were unobtainable for most of the plants in the region, and many data were estimated. Cement industry BERs ranged from 205 kgCO2 to 225 kgCO2 per metric ton of cement.